SOME GOOD NEWS ON CRIME – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:   The FBI has just released crime statistics for last year.  There's progress here:

According to the figures released today by the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2010 declined for the fourth consecutive year. Property crimes also decreased, marking this the eighth straight year that the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2010 statistics show that the estimated volumes of violent and property crimes declined 6.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, when compared with the 2009 estimates. The violent crime rate for the year was 403.6 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants (a 6.5 percent decrease from the 2009 rate), and the property crime rate was 2,941.9 offenses per 100,000 persons (a 3.3 percent decrease from the 2009 figure).

COMMENT:  There is something quite fascinating here.  The decline is coming at a time of substantial economic stress.  Now, how many times have you heard that "poverty causes crime"?  It's one of the chiseled-in-stone talking points of the political left.  In fact, the crime rate actually went down during the Great Depression.  I don't know why this is so, but it calls into question much of what is taught by trendy sociologists.

The fact is that, over the last 20 years, crime in New York City has declined dramatically, largely due to vast improvements in policing.  It may well be that the national decline in offenses reflects the fact that other areas are learning New York's lessons.  When the criminal has a high expectation that he will be caught, and successfully prosecuted, he might choose another endeavor, like work. 

Crime is best studied on a locality-by-locality basis.  Some places never seem to improve much, others improve dramatically.  Examine carefully the quality of local leadership and its attitude toward law enforcement.

September 19, 2011